Monday, October 6

Thoughts on the Economy...

About four months ago, I met a gent in London who was telling me that getting out of stocks was a good thing because the US market was going to have a major correction - and that being in cash was an important place to be.

When I heard that, I thought - nah, the worst is over - all of the problems have been factored in to the market and we are climbing out of this mess.  With projects occuring all over the place, the markets were beginning their rise, I thought - we have skirted that bullet once again.  How silly I realized what actually happened.

Today - a number of things impacted me - even after I mentioned the sense of dread I felt as I walked the streets of New York.  For some reason, the air felt different - after the past two weeks of financial turmoil, you would think things has improved somewhat.  But when the market reacted to Europe's reaction - and the bailout bill taking longer than was necessary (and boy, am I upset at Congress for tacking on $140B in pork) - no wonder the markets over reacted and dropped another 400 points.

Now, while I am not a major player in the markets, I looked at my equities and saw something that ran my blood cold.  20% reduction in my savings - in four months.  That is unheard of.  At least, I thought it was.

And then, the telephone calls, where:
  1. One client told me that the closing of the major bank in Europe has scared him silly such that he will be closing offices and cutting costs rapidly - which means our project is put on hold
  2. One client told me that their lines of credit are so severly impacted that he is considering taking a rollup/merger deal that will not bring about the valuation he wanted, but will bring him closer to cash to keep his operation going
This is big - and this is nowhere near the end.

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