Tuesday, January 2

Yi-Tan Tech Conference Call - Predictions for 2007

From Jerry's request for predictions:

Dean Landsman: Microsoft will make serious moves on online advertising and attempt a hostile takeover of Yahoo! - might save Microsoft's own blunders.

Pip: Microsoft is on the crest - ready to become bolder - and become more active. Microsoft's R&D budget is too high compared to their peers ($8B in 2006) - will make a change. Wii becoming a very powerful voice. Alternative energy/glovbal warming will become higher and higher. Some new idea will come into the framework will translate into a change. Action may occur. Stage 2 of energy independence, climate change - will be at the top of the agenda by the end of the year. Green will become cool - and will be a way for people to become rich (Jerry: "green is the new black") - audience has expanded.

Nicole Lazzaro: Wii stats - very impressive - continued success - outselling the PS3 with the new experience. Gets back to what is most exciting about gaming - forcing designers to innovate and create new innovation elsewhere. Low end of the market.

Nancy White: SecondLife - what will people be doing with online environments - how will people make it easier for users to use SL environments. Second wave adoption is going to get serious attention - and will help develop revenues and adoption opportunities.

Jerry: no community is takling up SL like college students took up FaceBook.

Allen Kelly: Gartner hype-cycle - initial hype, disillusionment, then mainstream adoption - 2007 will be a disillusionment and then 2008 will become the real growth. SL (hopefully) will offer a chance to allow for creative and innovative opportunities after the disillusionment trough.

Pip: Web browser allows for simple navigation - ISPs got you on. Need similar slide for SL. Initial adoption - and then something that is radically compelling. Needs it to become more navigatible and create compelling experiences.

Jerry: in Web 1.0 - early browsers - you could view code and then reuse code. Easy dissemination. In SL, not easy - growth constraint - IP has slowed it down.

Nathan: energy issues- lend even more fire into energy-efficient computing. No info on google aiming for energy efficiency. AMD is maintaining its advantage over Intel in terms of energy efficiency. Virtualization will be the place to be.

Pip to Nathan: will there be fewer and fewer servers in the world? Nathan: some of the high volume has to start experiencing slower growth with the virtualization expansion. In addition, power and real-estate issues.

Howard: Dan Miller pointed out that in Y2K in '99 has depreciated in the past seven years - look to replace their equipment and look to virtualization and centralization. Amazon cloud-in-the-sky solutions. Social media is not dead - despite what Steve Rubel says.

Bo: FindMe/FollowMe will exist - IM, SMS, mobile phone lines - and control access views to contact you. Will be able to happen in '07 - smart phones, FON - will happen for real.

Jerry: will be have an aggregation of free wifi - muni? What effect will that have on the carrier model? Will it syphon off that solution.

Esme: Yes, you can roam NOW - police in several cities are already running around using their laptops, high speed chases - anmd getting high-speed wifi. Number of cities that have a network up and running or RFPs are over 300. Grassroots level wifi - can not roam. One companies network - wireless local LAN - you can roam. 802.11N will win over WiMAX - need to win over the laptops, need to get over the upgrade cycle. Delay in the replacement of the devices. N good replacement of current tech.

Jerry: social filtering (using social information to find information)

Heather: what is next - social filtering will proliferate - will be a huge influx of human curating - displaying visually - sort of like Jerry's Brain. Will always be challenging to find what you want. Yahoo! did it in the beginning - and now others are doing it better. Tools that will go into it - but human beings will have to be part of the equation.

Jerry: right-brain: "A Whole New Mind"

Jay: Drop Web 2.0, 3.0 and call it WebN - not webX (already copyrighted)

Nick: Identity in '07 - productive and accelerated work in converging technologies in terms of interoperation. When benefits of single signon becomes more than password/authentication - and then eyeballs/identities are allocated - this will become the major acceleration. Major places to look: iiw2006 - workshops, Berkman Center w/ Doc Searles, technometria, Sxipper - single signon browser. Identity/SS - middle of the spam issues - more important to validate who sends what to make identity very important - will, in a lasting way, be important. Could help and really hurt as well - tracking the policy side. Watching how people are able to manage their identity and other aspects.

Jerry: 2007 appears to be spam. Image spam - much larger in file size - applicaion acceleration. Now it is becoming more important to handle.

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