"Kerry had a 19-point lead in Monday's one-day polling. In the final analysis, voters raised doubts about Howard Dean. Through the second half of 2003, New Hampshire voters indicated that they were angry but overwhelmingly felt that President Bush was a shoo-in for re-election . But as in Iowa, the closer Democrats got to actually voting, there was a renewed sense that President Bush could and must be defeated. In our final sample, just about half (49%) told us that Dean was unlikely to defeat the President (that is fifteen points worst than his worst day in Iowa). At the same time, only fifteen percent said it was unlikely that any other Democrat in the race could defeat the President. Howard Dean was the man of the year, but that was 2003. In 2004, electability has become the issue and John Kerry has benefited by developing a sharper message, by his veteran status, and - this is particularly significant- New Hampshire Democrats tell us that he looks like a president.
Unbelieveable. But, as I keep saying, New Hampshire voters are not guaranteed to vote one way or another. The news likes to say voters in NH will vote the way they want to -- and not the way the pollsters tell them to.
Funny thing, with the new "front-loaded" Primary schedule (just learned what this actually means -- there used to be a six-week break from NH to the next primary), I do not think the typical IA/NH dynamics with three tickets from IA / two tickets from NH is actually what will happen. All of the candidates will carry on into the Feb 3rd States -- and it is there that HD will truly find his stride. He has had his volunteer teams in place for some time -- and, while they might be disillusioned from IA, they might get a boost from NH and then Feb 3rd could be the watershed for his candidacy. For a simple reason -- it is there he and the other candidates are looking for their momentum. That is what I wonder about. For NH, I do not know if we will win -- I am not a believer in polls -- I believe people want to make their own minds up and polls, while a short-cut in making people notice other candidates, I think they will make a choice based on what they want to happen.
Best thing that happened to us -- we fixed our site. The number of emails we get thanking us for the ease of use and how easy it is to actually find information on our site is wonderful. And the hits (traffic) keeps on coming. The press reports on our traffic increase, but it goes way beyond that. The email responses are incredible, the contributors, the number of volunteers...it is astounding. Now, the question is: how do we leverage all of this enthusiasm to give GWB his ticket to Crawford, Texas.
Minor thought: do we really think that GWB will move back to Crawford, Texas?